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Metodologia per la valutazione del rischio sismico integrata coi processi di recupero delle strutture mediante stima delle incertezze

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

ingenio

Alla pagina e intervista su : novita’ dal convegno ANIDIS 2025.

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Bay-Fi preprint / working paper

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This work is driven by the results in my on LLMs.

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Adaptive regional seismic risk assessment under uncertainty: a case study in the Alto Garda area

Sun, 14 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

A reliable national and regional risk assessment is essential for researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers. Seismic risk assessment is crucial for evaluating earthquake-induced damage to structures, infrastructure, and society. However, it cannot be effectively performed without properly managing uncertainty. In this context, hazard models and vulnerability analysis are the two critical pillars that contribute most to improving risk management, infrastructure planning, and disaster response. In this work, we present an adaptive risk assessment framework for the Alto Garda area, located in northern Italy. Leveraging newly available microzonation data and advanced hazard analysis within OpenQuake engine, the study achieves high spatial resolution at a local scale. Historical earthquake records, cadastral data, open-source maps, and satellite imagery are integrated to (i) compile a comprehensive building taxonomy and (ii) dynamically refine vulnerability models. Additionally, both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are carefully considered using a logic tree approach applied to both hazard and fragility analysis. Moreover, an adaptive approach is implemented, meaning that as new information becomes available, updates are seamlessly integrated to enhance accuracy and refine models. By combining hazard and vulnerability maps, the study delivers a first semiquantitative risk evaluation for the region. This approach highlights the potential of adaptive methodologies in improving seismic risk mitigation strategies and strengthening decision-making under uncertainty.

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UQ based state-dependent framework for recovery and seismic risk assessment

Sun, 14 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Recovery processes and seismic risk assessment represent a critical and challenging frontier in engineering risk analysis under uncertainty. Despite growing attention, the problem remains inherently complex, shaped by nonlinear system behaviours and high-dimensional stochastic spaces. These difficulties are compounded by the limited availability and often confidential nature of recovery data, highlighting the urgent need for modelling approaches that are not only efficient, but also flexible enough to adapt to real-world constraints. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that explicitly integrates recovery into state-dependent seismic risk assessment. The approach combines fragility modelling, recovery processes, and hazard evaluation into a cohesive structure, enabling holistic and reliable risk analysis. Designed for flexibility, the framework draws from the state-of-the-art in different disciplines, such as structural engineering, recovery modelling and probabilistic seismic modelling, and focuses on balancing adaptability and computational efficiency. At the core of the methodology is a state-dependent seismic risk model that embeds recovery through a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) framework. This enables the joint evaluation of damage progression and recovery over time. Spectral analysis of the reduced transition matrix allows for reliability-based metrics. The framework is applied to a full-scale industrial steel frame from the European SPIF project, tested under seismic loading at EUCENTRE, demonstrating its ability to capture resilience dynamics with computational efficiency.

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UQ state-dependent framework for seismic fragility assessment of industrial components

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Recently, there has been increased interest in assessing the seismic fragility of industrial plants and process equipment. This is reflected in the growing number of studies, community-funded research projects and experimental campaigns on the matter. Nonetheless, the complexity of the problem and its inherent modelling, coupled with a general scarcity of available data on process equipment, has limited the development of risk assessment methods. In fact, these limitations have led to the creation of simplified and quick-to-run models. In this context, we propose an innovative framework for developing state-dependent fragility functions. This new methodology combines limited data with the power of metamodelling and statistical techniques, namely polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) and bootstrapping. Therefore, we validated the framework on a simplified and computationally efficient MDoF system endowed with Bouc–Wen hysteresis. Then, we tested it on a real nonstructural industrial process component. Specifically, we applied the state-dependent fragility framework to a critical vertical tank of a multicomponent full-scale 3D steel braced frame (BF). The seismic performance of the BF endowed with process components was captured by means of shake table campaign within the European SPIF project. Finally, we derived state-dependent fragility functions based on the combination of PCE and bootstrap at a greatly reduced computational cost.

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Fragility models for industrial equipment subjected to natural hazards

Thu, 15 May 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Large cylindrical storage tanks are widely utilised in petrochemical plants to store different liquid materials, e.g., crude oil. However, these structures are revealed to be especially vulnerable in case of a natural event like an earthquake or tsunami. Damage to these tanks, indeed, can lead to technology accidents (also known as NaTech), like a spill of dangerous materials or waste of filling, typically through failed sealings. To address the challenges of leakage modelling, fragility models associated to leakage due to seismic loading conditions of large cylindrical storage tanks, specifically a broad tank endowed with a single-deck floating roof, are studied. In particular, this paper aims to utilise a probabilistic model to evaluate fragility curves associated with leakage due to slosh-induced damage of single-deck floating roofs and/or seals of broad tanks. The assessment of failure mechanisms and leakage of pantograph-type mechanical seals is considered by means of local FE models. In addition, refined FE models of broad tanks with floating roofs are considered too. Specifically, a broad tank TK-59 endowed with an 86 m diameter and a 22 m height storing crude oil was selected and investigated as an industrial case study. Finally, fragility functions are derived and commented upon for the most relevant limit states associated with leakage.

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Design standardisation and seismic protection of SMRs through modular metafoundations

Mon, 12 Feb 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

This paper investigates the seismic protection of the Nuward™ small modular reactor (SMR) building, focusing on design loading and beyond design basis earthquake (bDBE) conditions. The study aims to achieve two primary objectives: (i) to enhance seismic mitigation of a SMR building under bDBE conditions, through the use of the innovative modular single-layer (SLM) and multi-layer (MLM) metafoundations (MFs); (ii) to effectively standardise and harmonise SMR building designs in locations prone to beyond design basis conditions. To accomplish these goals and demonstrate the protective capabilities of the MFs, the study employs non-linear time-history analyses (NLTHAs) for both DBE and bDBE conditions. Along these lines, a reduced-order model was developed from a refined finite element (FE) model of the SMR building using the Craig-Bampton mode synthesis technique. Then, finite locally resonant modular MFs were designed and analysed using NLTHAs. Specifically, physics-based ground motion models (GMMs) were used to generate and select seismic triplets that mimicked DBE and bDBE scenarios for NLTHAs. Successively to achieve improved seismic performance, the optimization of the MFs was pursued by targeting the optimal number of columns, resonator parameters, and unit cell dimensions. Additionally, the deployment of inerters was considered, to significantly reduce the size of the MFs and enable their application in multiple layers for ultra-low frequency attenuation. The overall findings suggest that modular MFs meet seismic protection requirements, and positively contribute to the standardization process of SMR buildings, even in areas characterized by beyond-design seismic conditions.

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Bolted flange joints equipped with FBG sensors in industrial piping systems subjected to seismic loads

Sat, 26 Jun 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

The vulnerability of major-hazard industrial plants to natural hazards has been recognized as an emergent issue whose importance is underlined by the Sendai Framework, established immediately after the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, in Japan. Hence, seismic risk analysis is of paramount importance as testified by the intense research activity that characterized the last years. In this respect, structural health monitoring can represent a valuable tool able to strongly help the decision-making phase. Along this main vein, optical fibers (OFs) represent a class of sensors able to both monitor critical conditions, as leakage of hazardous material, and activate safety barriers, if any. More precisely, optical fibers represent an economic solution, whose characteristics appear particularly suitable for dangerous environments like major-hazard plants. However, investigations relevant to their use for seismic monitoring of chemical/petrochemical plants are rather limited, especially when subject to strong dynamic excitations. As a result, this paper deals with the analysis of optical fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) applied to bolted flange joints (BFJ) under cyclic loadings. More precisely, two experimental programs, i.e., a cyclic test on a single BFJ and a series of shaking table tests on BFJs of a multicomponent system, demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed monitoring systems in detecting hazardous conditions and, thus, their potential use in conjunction with safety barriers.

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Seismic performance of multiple-component systems in special risk industrial facilities

Fri, 18 Sep 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Past earthquakes demonstrated the high vulnerability of industrial facilities equipped with complex process technologies leading to serious damage of the process equipment and multiple and simultaneous release of hazardous substances in industrial facilities. Nevertheless, the design of industrial plants is inadequately described in recent codes and guidelines, as they do not consider the dynamic interaction between the structure and the installations and thus the effect of seismic response of the installations on the response of the structure and vice versa. The current code-based approach for the seismic design of industrial facilities is considered not enough for ensure proper safety conditions against exceptional event entailing loss of content and related consequences. Accordingly, SPIF project (Seismic Performance of MultiComponent Systems in Special Risk Industrial Facilities) was proposed within the framework of the European H2020 - SERA funding scheme (Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe). The objective of the SPIF project is the investigation of the seismic behavior of a representative industrial structure equipped with complex process technology by means of shaking table tests. The test structure is a three-story moment resisting steel frame with vertical and horizontal vessels and cabinets, arranged on the three levels and connected by pipes. The dynamic behavior of the test structure and installations is investigated with and without base isolation. Furthermore, both firmly anchored and isolated components are taken into account to compare their dynamic behavior and interactions with each other. Artificial and synthetic ground motions are applied to study the seismic response at different PGA levels. After each test, dynamic identification measurements are carried out to characterize the system condition. The contribution presents the numerical simulations to calibrate the tests on the prototype, the experimental setup of the investigated structure and installations, selected measurement data and finally describes preliminary experimental results.

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Ground motion model for seismic vulnerability assessment of prototype industrial plants

Sun, 19 Jul 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Relationships between seismic action, system response and relevant damage levels in industrial plants require a solid background both in experimental data, due to the high level of nonlinearity and seismic input. Besides, risk and fragility analyses depend on the adoption of a huge number of seismic records usually not available in a site-specific analysis. In order to manage these issues and to gain knowledge on the definition of damage levels, limit states and performance for major-hazard industrial plant components, we present a possible approach for an experimental campaign based on a real prototype industrial steel structure. The investigation of the seismic behaviour of the reference structure will be carried out through shaking table tests. In particular, tests are focused on structural or process-related interactions that can lead to serious secondary damages as leakage in piping systems or connections with tanks and cabinets. The aforementioned test program has been possible thanks to the adoption of: (i) a number of artificial spectrum-compatible accelerograms; (ii) a ground motion model (GMM) able to generate a suite of synthetic time-histories records for specified site characteristic and earthquake scenarios. More precisely, GMM model parameters can be identified by matching the statistics of a target-recorded accelerogram to the ones of the model in terms of faulting mechanism, earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance and site shear-wave velocity. As a result, the stochastic model, based both on these matched parameters and on filtered white-noise process, can generate the ensemble of synthetic ground motions capable of capturing the main features of real earthquake ground motions, including intensity, duration, spectral content and peak values. Moreover, the synthetic records are selected to target specific damages and limit states in industrial components. Finally, by means of the combination of artificial and synthetic accelerograms, a seismic vulnerability assessment of both the whole structure and relevant industrial components

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A ground motion model for seismic vulnerability assessment of prototype industrial plants

Wed, 24 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Relationships between seismic action, system response and relevant damage levels in industrial plants require a solid background both in experimental data, due to the high level of nonlinearity, and in knowledge of seismic input due to large uncertainty. Besides, risk and fragility analyses depend on the adoption of a huge number of seismic records usually not available in a site-specific analysis. In order to manage these issues and to gain knowledge on the definition of damage levels, limit states and performance for major-hazard industrial plant components, we present a possible approach and discuss results of an experimental campaign based on a real prototype industrial steel structure. The investigation of the seismic behaviour of the reference structure has been carried on through shaking table tests, focusing in particular on the structural or process-related interactions that can lead to serious secondary damages as leakage in piping systems or connections with tanks and cabinets. This has been possible thanks to the adoption of a ground motion model (GMM) able to generate a suite of synthetic time-histories records for specified site characteristic and earthquake scenarios. In fact, model parameters can be identified by matching the statistics of a target-recorded accelerogram to the ones of the model in terms of faulting mechanism, earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance and site shear-wave velocity. Hence, the stochastic model, based both on these matched parameters and on filtered white-noise process, generates the ensemble of synthetic ground motions capable to capture the main features of real earthquake ground motions, including intensity, duration, spectral content and peak values. Finally, by means of the combination of a high-fidelity and a low-fidelity FE model as well as the stochastic input generated by a GMM, a seismic vulnerability assessment of both industrial components and the global structure can be carried out.

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