Paper-Conference |

Adaptive regional seismic risk assessment under uncertainty: a case study in the Alto Garda area

Sun, 14 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

A reliable national and regional risk assessment is essential for researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers. Seismic risk assessment is crucial for evaluating earthquake-induced damage to structures, infrastructure, and society. However, it cannot be effectively performed without properly managing uncertainty. In this context, hazard models and vulnerability analysis are the two critical pillars that contribute most to improving risk management, infrastructure planning, and disaster response. In this work, we present an adaptive risk assessment framework for the Alto Garda area, located in northern Italy. Leveraging newly available microzonation data and advanced hazard analysis within OpenQuake engine, the study achieves high spatial resolution at a local scale. Historical earthquake records, cadastral data, open-source maps, and satellite imagery are integrated to (i) compile a comprehensive building taxonomy and (ii) dynamically refine vulnerability models. Additionally, both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are carefully considered using a logic tree approach applied to both hazard and fragility analysis. Moreover, an adaptive approach is implemented, meaning that as new information becomes available, updates are seamlessly integrated to enhance accuracy and refine models. By combining hazard and vulnerability maps, the study delivers a first semiquantitative risk evaluation for the region. This approach highlights the potential of adaptive methodologies in improving seismic risk mitigation strategies and strengthening decision-making under uncertainty.

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UQ based state-dependent framework for recovery and seismic risk assessment

Sun, 14 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Recovery processes and seismic risk assessment represent a critical and challenging frontier in engineering risk analysis under uncertainty. Despite growing attention, the problem remains inherently complex, shaped by nonlinear system behaviours and high-dimensional stochastic spaces. These difficulties are compounded by the limited availability and often confidential nature of recovery data, highlighting the urgent need for modelling approaches that are not only efficient, but also flexible enough to adapt to real-world constraints. In this work, we introduce a novel framework that explicitly integrates recovery into state-dependent seismic risk assessment. The approach combines fragility modelling, recovery processes, and hazard evaluation into a cohesive structure, enabling holistic and reliable risk analysis. Designed for flexibility, the framework draws from the state-of-the-art in different disciplines, such as structural engineering, recovery modelling and probabilistic seismic modelling, and focuses on balancing adaptability and computational efficiency. At the core of the methodology is a state-dependent seismic risk model that embeds recovery through a Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) framework. This enables the joint evaluation of damage progression and recovery over time. Spectral analysis of the reduced transition matrix allows for reliability-based metrics. The framework is applied to a full-scale industrial steel frame from the European SPIF project, tested under seismic loading at EUCENTRE, demonstrating its ability to capture resilience dynamics with computational efficiency.

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Seismic performance of multiple-component systems in special risk industrial facilities

Fri, 18 Sep 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Past earthquakes demonstrated the high vulnerability of industrial facilities equipped with complex process technologies leading to serious damage of the process equipment and multiple and simultaneous release of hazardous substances in industrial facilities. Nevertheless, the design of industrial plants is inadequately described in recent codes and guidelines, as they do not consider the dynamic interaction between the structure and the installations and thus the effect of seismic response of the installations on the response of the structure and vice versa. The current code-based approach for the seismic design of industrial facilities is considered not enough for ensure proper safety conditions against exceptional event entailing loss of content and related consequences. Accordingly, SPIF project (Seismic Performance of MultiComponent Systems in Special Risk Industrial Facilities) was proposed within the framework of the European H2020 - SERA funding scheme (Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe). The objective of the SPIF project is the investigation of the seismic behavior of a representative industrial structure equipped with complex process technology by means of shaking table tests. The test structure is a three-story moment resisting steel frame with vertical and horizontal vessels and cabinets, arranged on the three levels and connected by pipes. The dynamic behavior of the test structure and installations is investigated with and without base isolation. Furthermore, both firmly anchored and isolated components are taken into account to compare their dynamic behavior and interactions with each other. Artificial and synthetic ground motions are applied to study the seismic response at different PGA levels. After each test, dynamic identification measurements are carried out to characterize the system condition. The contribution presents the numerical simulations to calibrate the tests on the prototype, the experimental setup of the investigated structure and installations, selected measurement data and finally describes preliminary experimental results.

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Ground motion model for seismic vulnerability assessment of prototype industrial plants

Sun, 19 Jul 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Relationships between seismic action, system response and relevant damage levels in industrial plants require a solid background both in experimental data, due to the high level of nonlinearity and seismic input. Besides, risk and fragility analyses depend on the adoption of a huge number of seismic records usually not available in a site-specific analysis. In order to manage these issues and to gain knowledge on the definition of damage levels, limit states and performance for major-hazard industrial plant components, we present a possible approach for an experimental campaign based on a real prototype industrial steel structure. The investigation of the seismic behaviour of the reference structure will be carried out through shaking table tests. In particular, tests are focused on structural or process-related interactions that can lead to serious secondary damages as leakage in piping systems or connections with tanks and cabinets. The aforementioned test program has been possible thanks to the adoption of: (i) a number of artificial spectrum-compatible accelerograms; (ii) a ground motion model (GMM) able to generate a suite of synthetic time-histories records for specified site characteristic and earthquake scenarios. More precisely, GMM model parameters can be identified by matching the statistics of a target-recorded accelerogram to the ones of the model in terms of faulting mechanism, earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance and site shear-wave velocity. As a result, the stochastic model, based both on these matched parameters and on filtered white-noise process, can generate the ensemble of synthetic ground motions capable of capturing the main features of real earthquake ground motions, including intensity, duration, spectral content and peak values. Moreover, the synthetic records are selected to target specific damages and limit states in industrial components. Finally, by means of the combination of artificial and synthetic accelerograms, a seismic vulnerability assessment of both the whole structure and relevant industrial components

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A ground motion model for seismic vulnerability assessment of prototype industrial plants

Wed, 24 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Abstract

Relationships between seismic action, system response and relevant damage levels in industrial plants require a solid background both in experimental data, due to the high level of nonlinearity, and in knowledge of seismic input due to large uncertainty. Besides, risk and fragility analyses depend on the adoption of a huge number of seismic records usually not available in a site-specific analysis. In order to manage these issues and to gain knowledge on the definition of damage levels, limit states and performance for major-hazard industrial plant components, we present a possible approach and discuss results of an experimental campaign based on a real prototype industrial steel structure. The investigation of the seismic behaviour of the reference structure has been carried on through shaking table tests, focusing in particular on the structural or process-related interactions that can lead to serious secondary damages as leakage in piping systems or connections with tanks and cabinets. This has been possible thanks to the adoption of a ground motion model (GMM) able to generate a suite of synthetic time-histories records for specified site characteristic and earthquake scenarios. In fact, model parameters can be identified by matching the statistics of a target-recorded accelerogram to the ones of the model in terms of faulting mechanism, earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance and site shear-wave velocity. Hence, the stochastic model, based both on these matched parameters and on filtered white-noise process, generates the ensemble of synthetic ground motions capable to capture the main features of real earthquake ground motions, including intensity, duration, spectral content and peak values. Finally, by means of the combination of a high-fidelity and a low-fidelity FE model as well as the stochastic input generated by a GMM, a seismic vulnerability assessment of both industrial components and the global structure can be carried out.

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