<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="yes"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"><channel><title>Bayesian Inference |</title><link>https://cnardin.github.io/tags/bayesian-inference/</link><atom:link href="https://cnardin.github.io/tags/bayesian-inference/index.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><description>Bayesian Inference</description><generator>HugoBlox Kit (https://hugoblox.com)</generator><language>en-us</language><lastBuildDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</lastBuildDate><image><url>https://cnardin.github.io/media/icon_hu_2d2b1e39e19355d7.png</url><title>Bayesian Inference</title><link>https://cnardin.github.io/tags/bayesian-inference/</link></image><item><title>WCCM-ECCOMAS 2026 — World Congress on Computational Mechanics</title><link>https://cnardin.github.io/news/2026-wccm-reactis/</link><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://cnardin.github.io/news/2026-wccm-reactis/</guid><description>
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&lt;div class="callout-title font-semibold mb-1"&gt;WCCM-ECCOMAS 2026&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div class="callout-body"&gt;&lt;p&gt;World Congress on Computational Mechanics — ECCOMAS Congress 2026.&lt;br&gt;
Munich, Germany — &lt;strong&gt;19–24 July 2026&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;A very intense week with the RSUQ Chair at &lt;strong&gt;WCCM-ECCOMAS 2026&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The conference offered a unique opportunity to showcase our latest research at the intersection of &lt;strong&gt;uncertainty quantification, reliability, stochastic modelling, Bayesian inference, and computational mechanics&lt;/strong&gt;. We were proud to contribute five presentations spanning several aspects of our work.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2 id="contributions"&gt;Contributions&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;🔹 &lt;strong&gt;S. Marelli, S. Schär, C. Nardin &amp;amp; B. Sudret&lt;/strong&gt; — &lt;em&gt;Reliability analysis on dynamical systems using manifold-autoregressive surrogate models&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;
The keynote delivered by Stefano explored &lt;strong&gt;mNARX+&lt;/strong&gt;, a data-driven framework for modelling complex dynamical systems with evolving internal states and damage, enabling efficient reliability analysis of systems exhibiting non-stationary behaviour.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;🔹 &lt;strong&gt;C. Nardin, S. Marelli, M. Broccardo &amp;amp; B. Sudret&lt;/strong&gt; — &lt;em&gt;A Continuous Markov-Chain Perspective on Joint Seismic Reliability and Resilience Assessment&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;
In this work, I introduced &lt;strong&gt;continuous-time Markov chains&lt;/strong&gt; into the PEER-PBEE framework, providing a unified perspective for modelling both damage and recovery processes and enabling consistent assessment of seismic reliability and resilience.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;🔹 &lt;strong&gt;A. Herr, S. Marelli &amp;amp; B. Sudret&lt;/strong&gt; — &lt;em&gt;Introducing Stochastic Emulators for Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Population Parameters&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Anna presented a new approach based on &lt;strong&gt;stochastic emulators&lt;/strong&gt; that directly approximates population-level responses, reducing the computational burden of hierarchical Bayesian inference for expensive and stochastic forward models.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;🔹 &lt;strong&gt;S. Marelli, S. Schär &amp;amp; B. Sudret&lt;/strong&gt; — &lt;em&gt;UQLab – An Open-Source Tool for Uncertainty Quantification with Dynamical Systems&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Stefano highlighted the latest capabilities of &lt;strong&gt;UQLab&lt;/strong&gt;, including its support for time-series data, dynamical systems, and advanced data-driven surrogate models such as &lt;strong&gt;PC-NARX, F-NARX and mNARX+&lt;/strong&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;🔹 &lt;strong&gt;Moustapha&lt;/strong&gt; — &lt;em&gt;Reliability-Based Design Optimization with Stochastic Emulators&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br&gt;
Moustapha&amp;rsquo;s work on &lt;strong&gt;RBDO&lt;/strong&gt; demonstrated how stochastic emulators can provide an efficient alternative to classical deterministic surrogates, particularly for high-dimensional uncertainty spaces and intrinsically stochastic simulators.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Together, these contributions reflect the broader research vision of the Chair: developing efficient, scalable and reliable computational methods for uncertainty quantification and risk-informed decision making, while bridging fundamental methodological developments with challenging engineering applications.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Kudos to all the authors and presenters for their excellent work, and many thanks to the &lt;strong&gt;WCCM-ECCOMAS 2026&lt;/strong&gt; organizers for bringing together such a vibrant scientific community. It was a pleasure to meet old and new colleagues, discuss new ideas, and see the UQ and computational mechanics communities come together at such an enormous congress.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;h2 id="abstract"&gt;Abstract&lt;/h2&gt;
&lt;p&gt;C. Nardin, S. Marelli, M. Broccardo &amp;amp; B. Sudret —&lt;br&gt;
&lt;strong&gt;A Continuous Markov-Chain Perspective on Joint Seismic Reliability and Resilience Assessment&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&lt;em&gt;WCCM-ECCOMAS 2026&lt;/em&gt;, Munich, July 2026.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;em&gt;RSUQ Chair at WCCM-ECCOMAS 2026, Munich — July 2026.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description></item><item><title>Bay-Fi: Approximate Bayesian main Frequency Identification for extremely undersampled signals</title><link>https://cnardin.github.io/publication/articles/2026-mssp-bayfi/</link><pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://cnardin.github.io/publication/articles/2026-mssp-bayfi/</guid><description>
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&lt;/div&gt;</description></item><item><title>Bayesian Approach for Main Frequency Identification on Extremely Under-Sampled Signals</title><link>https://cnardin.github.io/publication/conferences/2025-evaces-bayfi/</link><pubDate>Wed, 02 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://cnardin.github.io/publication/conferences/2025-evaces-bayfi/</guid><description>
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